RECENT MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE CUBAN ECONOMY: 2015–2024

Abstract

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic performance of the Cuban economy during the 2015–2024 period, a decade marked by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the tightening of U.S. sanctions, and the accumulation of internal imbalances. Through a descriptive analysis based on official statistics and the estimation of the output gap using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the dynamics of the real sector, the monetary sector, and public finances are examined. The results reveal a context of stagflation: GDP contracted by 10.9% in 2020 and has not managed to recover to pre-pandemic levels, with signs of a loss of installed productive capacity. In the monetary sphere, the 2021 exchange rate unification (Tarea Ordenamiento) triggered an unprecedented inflationary process. Public finances exhibit persistent fiscal deficits, and fiscal policy still lacks the institutional arrangements to limit quasi-fiscal operations and enable it to fulfill its stabilization function. It is concluded that economic recovery, price stabilization, and the transformation of the regulatory framework require interdependent reforms in the fiscal, monetary, and investment spheres, the proper sequencing of which is critical to their success.